Benedetta Cerruti & Xavier Roca-Maza


While Italy is slowly exiting its second wave, and struggling to keep the new cases at a manageable level, vaccinations have started worldwide. While in Europe the vaccinations, started the 27th of December 2020, still do not reach a significative percentage of the population, Israel has vaccinated 90% of >60 years old, and around the 40% of total population (1). We propose here a possible proxy for monitoring the vaccine effects on the epidemics.

Italy’s first and second wave: a comparison

We have previously shown that different containment measures in different countries may lead…

Serena Bradde, Benedetta Cerruti, and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud*


We show that the dynamics of the number of deaths due to Covid in different countries is to a large extent universal once the origin of time is chosen to be the start of the lockdown, and the number of death is rescaled by the total number of deaths after the lockdown, itself a proxy of the number of infections at the start of the lockdown. Such a curve collapse is much less convincing when normalizing by the total population. Sweden, with its no-lockdown, light-touch approach, is the only outlier that deviates…

Benedetta Cerruti, Serena Bradde

As a follow-up to our previous post, we would like to add a result arisen from the many interesting questions that we received.

Acknowledging the suggestion by Carolina Brito, we plot here the correlation between the number of deaths for different countries at the t*=22 days after the lockdown (the normalization factor of our previous contribution) as a function of the delay of each country’s response. We defined the delay of each country’s response as the difference between the day of the lockdown and the day at which the number of deaths passes a threshold number…

Serena Bradde, Benedetta Cerruti


Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and related COVID-19 pandemics starting from China has now spread worldwide causing so far almost two million cases and more than 100000 deaths. In the following, we want to show that the normalized number of daily deaths is insensitive to the details of the lockdown implemented in different countries and depends mostly on the time when the lockdown started. The main and most important effect of a lockdown is to cut the number of susceptible individuals, thus reducing the total number of deaths. …

Benedetta Cerruti

Physicist, PhD. Opinions expressed are solely my own and don’t express the views of my employers.

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